룩셈부르크, AAA 신용등급 유지
국제신용평가사 무디스 (Moody’s)는 COVID-19 대유행으로 인한 경제 제재로 타격을 받을 것으로 예상됨에도 불구하고 룩셈부르크의 AAA 1등급의 신용등급을 확정했다.
The global economic slow-down brought by the coronavirus crisis is obviously also affecting Luxembourg, and the government has launched a substantial stabilisation programme for the economy. In spite of the fact that this will increase public debt and that the forecasted GDP growth in 2020 will probably not happen, Moody’s, one of the world’s leading credit rating agencies, reconfirmed the country’s AAA rating on 8 April 2020.
Economic recovery expected to start in autumn 2020
The economic downturn in Luxembourg is expected to be only temporary. Luxembourg magazine Delano quotes Steffen Dyck, lead author of the Moody’s Investors Service report, who says: “Taking into consideration the support measures announced so far, both from the national government and European institutions such as the European Central Bank and the European Commission, we forecast a sharp contraction in Luxembourg’s real GDP by around 4% in 2020. The largest impact will be felt from the second half of March throughout the second quarter, before the economy begins to recover in the third quarter, assuming that the restrictions on public life and economic activity are gradually lifted from early May.” Real GDP growth is expected to rebound relatively strongly and reach approximately 3% in 2021.
Sound finances
Moody’s confidence in Luxembourg’s economy is notably due to the “government’s very sound finances and strong balance sheet”. The government debt of about 18% of GDP in 2019 is one of the lowest proportions among advanced economies. The country also has flush reserves, including those of its social security funds. Nevertheless, Delano quotes, Moody’s predicted government debt would rise by around 6% of GDP.
Source: https://www.tradeandinvest.lu/news/luxembourg-maintains-aaa-credit-ranking/